Quarterly Consumer Intelligence

Your Q2 decisions deserve better than a gut feeling.

The U.S. consumer is a complex, contradictory signal — spending in some places, retreating in others, and rarely telling you in advance. The Consumer Pulse Index gives you the complete picture, every quarter, before the decisions that matter.

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Consumer Pulse Index
Most Recent Quarter
47.1
⚠ Strained — Selective Spending
Financial Capacity
20
Spending Activity
73
Labor & Income
69
Housing Pressure
33
Consumer Outlook
42
Updated quarterly from BLS, FRED, Census, University of Michigan, OECD, EIA, and Federal Reserve data.
20 years of historical context
14 source datasets synthesized
90–180 day forward outlook
6 operator action implications
Published quarterly
The problem

You're making real decisions with incomplete information.

The data exists. But it's fragmented, lagging, and contradictory — and nobody's job is to translate it into something you can actually act on.

01
Spending looks fine. Your customers don't.
Headline retail data says consumers are spending. What it doesn't show: they're doing it on record-high credit balances, with a savings rate near cycle lows. The surface looks healthy. The foundation is eroding. You won't see the crack until it's already widened.
02
Confidence collapsed — but your models don't know it.
Consumer sentiment can sit near its lowest non-recessionary readings in decades while jobs and income data look solid. That divergence is the most dangerous gap in the current environment. Businesses relying on labor market data alone are missing half the story.
03
You can't act on yesterday's data in time for next quarter.
By the time retail reports, Fed statements, and analyst commentary reach you, the moment for a proactive decision has usually passed. What you need is a synthesized, forward-looking read — before the quarter turns against you.
What the data actually shows — latest quarter

Every quarter, the consumer sends signals most operators miss entirely.

These are the kinds of data points CPIx synthesizes each quarter — the ones that determine how your next 90 to 180 days look, whether or not you're reading them.

Credit
Financial Capacity — The Hidden Strain
When consumers maintain spending through debt rather than savings, the surface looks healthy while the foundation erodes. CPIx tracks revolving credit, savings rate, delinquency, and borrowing costs together — because no single metric tells the full story.
Sentiment
Consumer Outlook — The Confidence Gap
Consumers can have jobs and income and still feel financially squeezed. When confidence collapses while labor data holds, most indicators give you a false read. CPIx captures both — and tells you which one is driving behavior.
Leading
Forward Indicators — Before It's Obvious
The yield curve spread and initial jobless claims have demonstrated predictive relationships to consumer behavior 1–4 quarters ahead. CPIx integrates them into every report so you're positioning for what's coming, not reacting to what already happened.
What flying blind costs you

The decisions that hurt most aren't wrong. They're just made at the wrong moment.

A strained consumer environment punishes businesses that are optimized for the last cycle. Here's what that looks like in practice.

×
Inventory built for discretionary demand that isn't comingYou ordered based on last quarter's numbers. The consumer shifted to necessity categories three months ago.
×
Pricing strategy mismatched to what the market will actually bearA credit-stretched consumer is not price-insensitive. They're value-obsessed. Aspirational positioning misfires.
×
Marketing spend in channels consumers are quietly retreating fromDiscretionary categories are softening even as total spending holds. Your category may not be what it was six months ago.
×
Staffing plans designed for demand that's shifting under your feetWhen the labor market softens and confidence breaks, spending contraction in discretionary categories accelerates fast.
×
Acquisition budget spent on customers who can't absorb a poor experienceWith revolving balances at record highs, consumers are unforgiving. One friction point and they're gone — and telling people about it.
×
No early warning before sentiment breaks and demand contractsEach CPIx report identifies the six leading indicators that matter most heading into the next quarter — with specific thresholds. Most operators won't see the turn until earnings disappoint.
The solution
"One synthesized read. Every quarter. Before the decisions that matter."

The Consumer Pulse Index doesn't give you more data to interpret. It gives you the interpretation — a single composite score built from 14 economic datasets, five weighted pillars, and 20 years of historical calibration. With a 90–180 day forward outlook and specific implications for your business.

What's inside each report

Everything you need to walk into your next planning meeting with conviction.

21 pages. 10 original charts. Every number traced to its source. Written for operators, not economists.

01
The CPIx Score — One Number, Five Dimensions
A composite 0–100 score built from Financial Capacity, Spending Activity, Labor & Income, Housing Pressure, and Consumer Outlook. Instantly tells you which zone the consumer is in — and what it means operationally.
02
Pillar Deep Dives — Where the Stress Is
Each pillar scored, charted, and explained. You'll know exactly which dimension of consumer health is dragging, which is holding, and which is quietly improving — before that information hits mainstream analysis.
03
Historical Analog Matching — What Happened Last Time
The past periods most structurally similar to today — identified through a five-variable model — with documented evidence of what consumers actually did in the two to three quarters that followed. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
04
90–180 Day Scenarios — Three Paths, With Probabilities
A base case, upside case, and downside case — each with a specific CPIx range projection and the exact conditions that would push the environment in that direction. Not vague hedging. Specific, actionable parameters.
05
Six Operator Implications — What to Do About It
Specific, data-backed guidance on pricing, inventory, staffing, customer acquisition, and retention strategy — drawn from what the numbers actually show, not generic economic commentary.
06
Leading Indicator Watchlist — Your Early Warning System
The six variables that matter most heading into the next quarter — with specific thresholds that signal which scenario is materializing. Monitor these between reports and you'll see the turn before it's obvious.
By the numbers

Built from the ground up. No guesswork.

20+
Years of historical dataCPIx back-calculated to 2006, covering the GFC, recovery, pandemic, and rate cycle.
14
Source datasetsBLS, FRED, Census, University of Michigan, OECD, EIA, Federal Reserve — all verified public sources.
5
Composite pillarsEach weighted by its demonstrated influence on consumer spending. Two pillars include genuine leading indicators.
4×
Per yearPublished within 30 days of each quarter's close. Delivered as a professionally designed PDF on publish date.
Sample Assessment — CPIx: 47.1 — Strained
The consumer enters this period with record revolving credit ($1.33T), a savings rate at cycle lows (4.2%), and sentiment near its lowest non-recessionary reading in 20 years. Labor remains the floor — but the margin for error is shrinking.
Sample — Closest Historical Analogs
Q4 2022 (Post-inflation peak) and Q1 2023 (Banking stress) — both resolved with slow grind rather than contraction. The current environment is more fragile on confidence, more favorable on rates, with a distinct near-term headwind.
90–180 Day Scenarios
Base case
55%
Upside
25%
Downside
20%
Simple Pricing

One bad quarter costs more than a year of clarity.

Both options include the most recent quarterly report — 21 pages, 10 original charts, all five pillar deep dives — delivered immediately upon purchase.

Single Report
$97
one-time purchase
Most recent quarter — delivered immediately
  • Most recent quarterly report (PDF)
  • All five pillar scores & charts
  • Historical analog comparison
  • 90–180 day scenario outlook
  • Six operator implications
  • Leading indicator watchlist
Buy Single Report — $97
Best Value
Annual Subscription
$297
per year — all 4 quarterly reports
Less than $75 per quarter
  • All four quarterly reports for the year
  • Most recent report delivered immediately
  • Future reports delivered on publish date
  • Quarter-over-quarter trend analysis
  • Full pillar deep dives & charts
  • Historical analog comparison
  • 90–180 day scenario outlook
  • Operator implications & watchlist
Subscribe Now — $297/yr

Four reports purchased individually: $388. Annual subscription saves you $91 — and removes the friction of deciding each quarter.

Team & Enterprise Licensing Need access for your leadership team, board, or organization? We offer team licenses, white-label arrangements, and association member benefit pricing.
Contact us → info@consumerpulseindex.com
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    Common Questions

    Everything you need to know before buying.

    Who is this report for?
    Business owners, CEOs, CMOs, CFOs, and senior operators in consumer-facing industries who make pricing, inventory, staffing, or strategy decisions on a quarterly basis. If your revenue depends on consumer spending — directly or indirectly — this report is built for you.
    Why can't I just use free data from the Fed or BLS?
    You can — and most of what CPIx uses is sourced from exactly those places. The gap isn't access to data; it's synthesis, weighting, and translation. CPIx integrates 14 datasets across five dimensions into one score, identifies historical analogs, builds probability-weighted scenarios, and tells you what it means for your business. That's the work the free data won't do for you.
    When does each report publish?
    Within 30 days of each quarter's close. Q1 (January–March) publishes in late April. Q2 in late July. Q3 in late October. Q4 in late January. Annual subscribers receive each report by email on publish date.
    What's the difference between the single report and the annual subscription?
    The single report gives you the most recent quarterly analysis — everything in the report, delivered immediately, one time. The annual subscription gives you all four quarterly reports at a meaningful discount, and builds the quarter-over-quarter trend picture that becomes more valuable as the year progresses. Annual subscribers also receive each new report automatically on publish date.
    What format is the report delivered in?
    A professionally designed PDF — approximately 21 pages including 10 original charts, five pillar deep dives, historical analog comparison, 90–180 day scenario analysis with CPIx range projections, six operator implications, and a leading indicator watchlist. Delivered immediately upon purchase via email download link.
    Do you offer team or enterprise licensing?
    Yes. For organizations that need access for multiple team members, board members, or want white-label or association member benefit arrangements, contact us directly at info@consumerpulseindex.com. We accommodate invoice billing for organizational purchases.
    Is this investment or financial advice?
    No. The Consumer Pulse Index is a strategic intelligence product provided for general informational and business planning purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. See the full disclaimer below.

    The consumer is sending signals right now. Are you reading them?

    Every quarter, CPIx distills 14 economic datasets into one clear, defensible read on where the consumer stands — and a specific forward outlook for the next 90 to 180 days. Stop planning blind.

    Subscribe — $297/yr

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    Important Disclosures & Disclaimers

    General Informational Purpose Only. The Consumer Pulse Index (CPIx) and all reports, scores, analyses, and content produced under the Consumer Pulse Index brand are provided for general informational and strategic planning purposes only. Nothing on this website or in any CPIx report constitutes investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, asset, or financial instrument of any kind.

    Not a Substitute for Professional Advice. Readers and subscribers should not rely solely on this report when making business, operational, financial, staffing, pricing, inventory, or investment decisions. All such decisions involve risks and variables beyond the scope of this report. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own independent research and analysis, and to consult qualified professional advisors — including financial, legal, and industry specialists — before acting on any information, score, scenario, or conclusion contained herein.

    Limitation of Liability. Consumer Pulse Index, its founders, authors, analysts, and affiliates expressly disclaim any and all liability for losses, damages, costs, or adverse outcomes of any kind — direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or otherwise — arising from or related to any business, operational, or financial decision made in reliance on this report or any information contained herein.

    Data Sources & Accuracy. All data used in the construction of CPIx scores is sourced from publicly available government, academic, and institutional sources including the Federal Reserve (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, University of Michigan, OECD, Energy Information Administration, and Federal Reserve Board. While every reasonable effort is made to ensure accuracy, completeness, and timeliness, Consumer Pulse Index makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or fitness for any particular purpose of the information contained herein. Source data is subject to revision by issuing agencies, which may result in adjustments to historical CPIx values in subsequent reports.

    Forward-Looking Statements. The 90–180 day scenarios and probability estimates presented in CPIx reports are illustrative analytical frameworks derived from historical pattern analysis. They are not actuarial forecasts, statistical predictions, or guarantees of future consumer conditions, economic outcomes, or business results. Past CPIx scores and historical consumer patterns are not indicative of future index readings or consumer behavior.

    Not a Registered Adviser. Consumer Pulse Index is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, financial institution, or regulated financial services entity, and is not regulated as such by any governmental authority.

    Intellectual Property & Permitted Use. Each report is licensed for the use of the individual or organization that purchased it. Redistribution, reproduction, resale, or sharing of any CPIx report — in whole or in part — without the express written consent of Consumer Pulse Index is prohibited. Team and enterprise licensing is available for organizations requiring broader distribution rights. Contact info@consumerpulseindex.com for licensing inquiries.

    Refund Policy. CPIx reports come with a 30-day satisfaction guarantee. Refund requests must be submitted to info@consumerpulseindex.com within 30 days of the original purchase date. Consumer Pulse Index reserves the right to limit or decline refund requests that appear to be made in bad faith or that involve repeated purchases and refund requests.